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A |

之前被媒体们大肆宣传的加沙（临时）停火协议再度陷入僵局。

5月9日晚，以色列战时内阁批准了“有限”扩大在加沙地带南部城市拉法的军事行动。

据悉，以军将以不会违反拜登政府关于拉法红线的方式增加在拉法的行动，在特定地区进行“精准反恐”。 Ohio residents this week began voting on a constitutional amendment whose fate will ultimately determine abortion access in the state.Voters are considering two ballot initiatives; ballots began being accepted on Wednesday and go through Election Day on Nov. 7.The two measures are: Issue 1, the amendment that if approved would add abortion rights to the state constitution; and Issue 2, which would legalize recreational marijuana.The proposed abortion amendment would establish an "individual right to one's own reproductive medical treatment including but not limited to abortion" and then creates legal protections for those individuals, among other guarantees like for contraception and fertility treatment.The marijuana measure, if passed, would make Ohio the 24th state to legalize cannabis and would allow adults 21 years and older to buy and possess up to 2.5 ounces of flower and 15 grams of extract.In August, Ohio voters resoundingly rejected a contentious, Republican-backed ballot measure that would have raised the threshold for future changes to the state constitution -- an effort that would have specifically made it more difficult for the abortion amendment to pass.When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down its previous Roe v. Wade ruling, in 2022, the justices returned the question of abortion access to individual states. Since then, while some states have largely ceased abortion access, others have taken up ballot measures that put the question before voters. In those cases -- in both red and blue states so far -- voters have rejected the potential for abortion restrictions and bans or elected to expand access.On Sept. 27, the Ohio Supreme Court started hearing arguments about the state's six-week abortion ban, which was previously put on hold by a lower court.The success or failure of the abortion ballot measure could render that case moot, if state voters add abortion access to their constitution.Both sides have built up mobilization efforts over the past few weeks -- knocking on doors, canvassing and hosting rallies across the state."Whether you're pro-life or pro-choice, Issue 1 just goes too far," Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, said at a recent event at the Ohio GOP's headquarters.Ohio Democrats claimed last week to have been inching toward 100,000 doors knocked and more than 100,000 calls made in the time since their win in the August special election."We're not leaving anything behind as we work to protect women's rights to choose and prevent Ohio's extreme abortion ban from taking effect," Ohio Democratic Chairwoman Elizabeth Walters said during a recent press briefing.There's also been significant financial investment in the race. According to numbers from AdImpact released last week, $12.3 million had been spent or reserved in advertising around the abortion ballot measure, with anti-amendment groups outspending amendment supporters by about $1.6 million.

The two sides make their arguments

Both Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, a coalition of groups supporting abortion rights, and allied Ohio Democrats have sounded the alarm on what they claim to be foul play by opponents of the abortion amendment.Last month, the state Supreme Court allowed the Republican-controlled Ohio Ballot Board -- which is overseen by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is also running for the U.S. Senate -- to use amendment language that includes the phrase "unborn child."Democrats on the board had asked for measure's language to remain what was on the petition that voters originally signed, which did not include that term.Amendment supporters have argued it was rewritten to confuse voters and is misleading about what the measure would actually do."They're running scared because they know their extreme abortion ban is wildly unpopular, and Ohio voters support a woman's right to make medical decisions for themselves without interference from politicians," Walters, with the state Democrats, said during a recent press call.Abortion opponents have also attempted to broaden the stakes of the proposal, arguing that it "goes far beyond" codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade to potentially affect parents' rights and "threaten the freedom of conscience of Ohio's healthcare professionals and preclude ... the enactment and enforcement of commonsense, protective laws," as Protect Women Ohio, one of the leading organizations fighting against the amendment, wrote in a memo."The Abortion Amendment victimizes rather than protects and empowers women and girls," they continued.LaRose, a leading voice against the measure, said in a statement to ABC News that "as a father and someone who's always stood up to protect life, I'll be working to defeat this radical measure."。

B |

2022年12月，哈马斯加沙地带负责人（二把手）辛瓦尔出席在加沙的一次集会。

如今回头看，这份扑朔迷离、被布林肯称为“十分慷慨”的协议，很可能是埃及、卡塔尔和美国主动搞的，以色列被动应对。

整个谈判过程中哈马斯和以色列代表并未面对面碰撞，而是分别跟埃及、卡塔尔、美国组成的“斡旋方”进行会谈。

之所以出现这样一种情况，还要从各方的诉求说起。

埃及在加沙危机中一直是两难的角色，从宗教大义角度它必须支持巴勒斯坦人，但从现实利益上又担心巴勒斯坦人（以及哈马斯）涌入西奈半岛，因此埃及是真想尽快停火。

卡塔尔是中东“骑墙派”和哈马斯的大金主，连哈马斯领导人哈尼亚都住在卡塔尔，战事越久拖不久，它想继续骑墙就越困难；据《以色列时报》5月4日的报道，卡塔尔迫于美国压力正不得不考虑驱逐哈马斯领导人。

C |

至于说美国，它其实也不希望以色列大举进攻加沙，这倒不是说拜登想放哈马斯一条生路，而是选举在即，不愿意多生是非。

在这种情况下，以色列方面死马当成活马医，接受了以临时停火若干天为条件换取部分剩余人质的提议，但永久停火的条件是绝无可能答应的。

D |

实际上，哈马斯方面已基本同意卡塔尔和埃及提出的加沙临时停火提议，是以色列战时内阁迅速予以回绝，称“哈马斯愿意接受的提案远远不符合以色列的基本要求”。

据知情人士透露，以方否决临时停火协议的关键要素有两点：其一是哈马斯要求将临时停火作为永久停火的“第一阶段”，其二则是承诺释放的33名人质可能是遗体而不是活人——经历过半年的激战后，哈马斯似乎已经“凑不齐”当初绑架的人质。

以军坦克出现在拉法口岸附近。

E | 图中左侧的以军坦克头顶“防护网”，这是俄乌战场刚刚兴起的防无人机操作。

F |

拉法及周边区域地图

5月7日，以军一个装甲旅攻入拉法，直取战略目标拉法口岸。

拉法口岸是加沙地带接收援助物资和人员逃亡埃及的重要过境点，以方控制该地同时给哈马斯和埃及带来巨大压力。

根据以色列方面的讲法，目前有多达8000名哈马斯武装分子在以军包围圈中，还有100多名人质被藏匿在拉法。

而就在本周，以色列已发布通知要求平民离开，不过截至目前仅疏散了十余万人。

5月10日，美国权威杂志《外交事务》刊登了一篇文章，为以色列进攻拉法造势。

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文章认为，在讨论如何处理这场危机之前，首先要弄清楚两个基本问题：哈马斯的目标是什么？它实现这些目标的策略是什么？

原文作者表示：

“哈马斯于2023年10月7日对以色列发动了令人发指的袭击，试图将自己和巴勒斯坦问题重新置于国际议程的中心，即使这意味着摧毁加沙本身的大部分地区。这次袭击还旨在挫败以色列和沙特阿拉伯之间可能达成的正常化协议——该协议将促进巴勒斯坦温和派、并边缘化哈马斯。”

上述观点之前反复谈过了，不再赘述，重点是作者接下来的猜测。

文章称：

“正如中国在5月初主持哈马斯和法塔赫会谈时所强调的那样，哈马斯领导层也在试图启动与法塔赫以及法塔赫控制的巴勒斯坦权力机构（PA）之间的和解进程。

这一举动服务于更深层次的目的，即重塑巴勒斯坦权力机构，复制‘真主党模式’。

与全副武装、伊朗支持的什叶派武装力量黎巴嫩真主党一样，哈马斯也希望未来由巴勒斯坦权力机构来管理加沙，同时它自己又是巴勒斯坦权力机构的一部分……”

真主党名义上是黎巴嫩的一个反对派政党，也参与黎巴嫩国内政治，但实际拥有完全军事自主权，这跟哈马斯完全不承认巴勒斯坦权力机构的立场有很大不同。

原文作者称，哈马斯的第一阶段目标是与法塔赫主导的巴勒斯坦权力机构和解，终极目标则是接管巴勒斯坦权力机构。

事实上，哈马斯2023年10月7日的袭击以及之后一系列的战争剧本，跟2006年黎巴嫩真主党与以色列的冲突非常类似。

2006年7月12日，真主党所属军队突袭了以色列北部，打死8名以军士兵，俘虏两人，以军随后发动针对黎巴嫩南部的战争。

H |

在冲突爆发的第一时间，黎巴嫩总理西尼乌拉就呼吁停火，并亲自联络美国总统小布什、联合国秘书长安南等人，要求停止以色列在黎巴嫩的侵略行为。

经过一个月激战，黎以双方在国际斡旋下停火。

I |

此战大涨了黎巴嫩真主党的声势，包括许多黎平民在内，称赞其为唯一可以和以色列武力对抗的军事组织。

当然，也有部分声音批评真主党一向采取单方面行动，但惹来的后果却要整个国家买单。

J |

《外交事务》的文章认为，经此一战，哈马斯表现出远超巴勒斯坦权力机构的战斗力，在巴国民族主义者心中奠定了“崇高形象”，它或许希望复制真主党的剧本，即成为一个温和政府框架下的“强势诸侯”。

K |

2024年5月，一名巴勒斯坦男子在加沙地带拉法东部注视以色列的空袭。

聚集大量难民的拉法。

刚刚过去的5月8日，焦头烂额的拜登向以色列发出开战以来最严厉的警告。

5月9日，以方正式宣布进行在拉法的军事行动，不过作为对拜登警告的回应，目前的行动仅限于口岸地区。

5月10日，联合国大会以压倒性多数支持巴勒斯坦应成为正式成员国，西班牙、爱尔兰与斯洛文尼亚等欧洲国家表示将于5月21日正式承认巴勒斯坦，以色列面临空前压力。

……

随着美国大选临近，拜登肯定不希望加沙危机延宕至选前时刻，因此摆在美国和以色列面前的选择就只剩下俩：要么速战速决，要么放弃进攻启动善后工作。

种种迹象表明，这场危机的收尾时刻快到了。

。

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Published on:07:19:02

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